Overconfident Bridge-Buyers (take a look with the appraiser)
About once a week I run into them again: the “Overconfident Bridge-Buyer.” The what? The home buyer who bought a much too expensive new house because they vastly overestimated the value of their own current home. This is what I call the Overconfident Bridge-Buyer. I actually wanted to call this article “Bridge-Buying Losers,” but my colleagues thought that sounded unprofessional — so I gave it a more respectable title. Yet “loser” seems rather apt…
Alright, how it all works. In today’s still completely unhinged housing market you of course pay far too much for a house. What stands out is that a large part of home buyers think they themselves can value their house perfectly well — and claim it’s worth amount X, based on so-called reference homes. It happens more and more. It’s a bit like the stock-market madness in America around 1918, when everyone only saw golden mountains… until a year later the whole economy collapsed and everyone was broke.
These Bridge-Buying losers… sorry, the “Overconfident Bridge-Buyers” are appearing more and more frequently. Everything is maxed out, with legs pushed over the threshold in the mortgage calculations, totally based on hot air.
I’ll take you into my day-to-day practice as a Registered Real Estate Agent & Registered Appraiser with three recent examples (literally from the past three weeks):
House on Amsterdam IJburg
A first example. It concerns a mid-terraced house of approx. 150 m² on Amsterdam IJburg. The client says to me: “The neighbour at number 60 just sold for €1,150,000. And last month the house of the rear neighbours sold for €1,170,000. So our house must be worth at least €1,150,000, because we also have an electric charging station, solar panels and more glazing in the front façade.”
Then I say:
“OK ok… interesting. Well, let’s take a look at those houses. Let’s examine. The house of your neighbour at number 60 seems comparable in every respect. But what strikes me is that he bought the ground lease canon off in perpetuity — whereas your Amsterdam house is burdened with an annual ground-lease payment of €3,000, and the perpetual buy-out according to the municipality’s tool amounts to €70,000. On the basis of this reference alone, my first estimation is that your house is already €70,000 less valuable than your neighbour’s. But alright. Let’s then look at your rear neighbours’ house that was sold. Let’s examine… That house has a comparable ground-lease regime and also a comparable finish to yours. That’s good. But look: that house came with one parking spot sold along with it. And look: its plot area was 50 m² larger.”
Then I take out my housing database (full of the most recent transactions and very detailed housing data) and look up another 8 recent references. And what turns out: my suspicion is confirmed. The house to be sold or to be appraised is €70,000 less valuable than what the owner himself thought.
But that owner just bought a nice new house for €1,500,000 and told his mortgage advisor his house is worth at least €1,150,000. The result: the financing for the new house will crash and they’ll have to cancel the purchase.
The client: “but we bought without the financing condition, what do we do now?”
Me: “I’m sorry, but you really should have taken a better buyer’s agent and mortgage advisor from the start. This is precisely the reason no client of our office has ever gotten into trouble — because we are extremely alert to this kind of pitfalls.”
A ‘villa’ in Amsterdam’s Pijp
Another recent example. A valuation for an apartment in Amsterdam’s “Pijp.” Very nicely finished and with a lovely balcony. The property is burdened with a ground lease, but the canon has been bought off until 2084. According to the municipality’s tool, the perpetual buy-out of the ground lease costs €40,792. For clarity: once the ground lease is bought off in perpetuity, that property becomes comparable to freehold homes (i.e. full ownership).
What stands out is that 95% of reference homes in the immediate vicinity are full-ownership (so no ground lease). The appraisal value comes out at €670,000. What turns out: the client had counted on a value of €785,000 for the bridging mortgage.
And ladies and gentlemen — do you want to know how big this Amsterdam “villa” was? It was a 65 m² apartment! How on earth can a 65 m² apartment in Amsterdam (in 2025), burdened with ground lease, be worth €785,000? What are the owners basing that on? The answer from the client: “We base it on the fact that we renovated the apartment last year for €200,000.”
“Help! What can/should we do?”
Me: “Maybe think carefully about that newly bought palace — because you really built a castle in the air, relying on your current home’s supposed overvalue without any foundation!”
What did the client do? They withdrew my appraisal, paid the bill in full, and eventually went looking for a ‘creative appraiser’ who would somehow manage to write up what they wanted. How it ended I don’t want to know. But what I do know: no one will finance that apartment for €785,000.
Fortunately, there is the NWWI (Dutch Home Value Institute), which scrutinizes all transactions and appraisals and filters out much of the creative nonsense — and then hits the emergency brake.
Highway-adjacent flat
OK. A valuation in a complex directly next to the massive KPMG building on the A9 motorway. One of the many hundreds of flats there. Visitor parking is impossible. So I literally parked in the front yard of the clients with warning lights on. I go inside to measure the property. “No need to measure, says the client. The flat is 96 m².”
I measure — come to 86 m². That is 10 m² less than the client claimed. I measure everything again. “Nope. The flat really is only 86 m² and not 96 m².”
“What do you think it’s worth?”, the clients asks. I say: “Madam, to be honest, I have no idea yet. I really need to look at recently sold flats in this complex…”
The man interrupts: “Well, Mr. van Kuijeren, I know exactly what the apartment is worth.”
Me: “Oh yeah, interesting. What do you think then?”
Man: “€900,000. We bought the flat two years ago, and after everything we put into it, we are nearly at €900,000 total investment.”
I say: “Interesting. Well, I’ll see what I come up with. Thanks for the coffee and goodbye.”
Back at the office, I immediately start working out the valuation. Luckily, the flat is full ownership (no ground lease) just like all available reference flats in the same complex.
As an appraiser, I may use references sold up to 5 years ago. If a reference was sold more than 24 months ago, I must explain specifically why I chose that reference.
The references
All these reference flats were “built” 2 years ago (re-development within an existing structural shell), and there are not many references in this huge complex. But I want to use flats from this same complex specifically for my valuation — because these give the best picture. After all, this complex is located directly next to the busy A9 motorway, and I find as an appraiser that this location in terms of “proximity to a motorway / dust / noise” is really significant. Not everyone wants to live so close to high fine-particulate pollution.
There are in fact only 3 reference flats that can convincingly explain what the value of the property to be appraised is.
All 3 flats are fully comparable in finish, location, maintenance, outside space, presence of one private parking spot and of course ownership status (no ground lease).
Reference 1
Reference flat 1 has an indexed sale price of €915,113. A short explanation: the flat had been sold about 2 years earlier for €800,000. But based on the Existing-Home Price Index (the housing-market development) it would now be worth €915,113. A fine reference indeed. But what stands out? That flat had a living area of 121 m². However, the flat to be appraised is only 86 m². So the reference flat is simply about 41% larger than the object.
That €900,000 value the client imagined his flat was worth — that is a bit ambitious. But okay. Let’s examine the other two references.
Reference 2
Reference 2 is almost comparable in all respects, and was sold 1.5 years ago for €737,500. My house-value index suggests that on the “valuation date” (which is the date when I do the appraisal) this flat should now be worth €800,505. But how large or small is this flat? This one is 100 m². That is still 16% larger than the flat to be appraised. With this second reference, the €900,000 the client hoped for seems already like a fairy tale.
Reference 3
And then comes reference 3. The only one that proves to be almost 100% comparable to the flat to be appraised — in living area, finish, location, ownership status, presence of a private parking spot, finishing, etc.
This reference flat was sold 2 months ago for €780,000.
And as appraiser I set the value of the flat to be appraised at €780,000.
You also see — from reference 1 and 2 — that price per square meter is not a linear variable. Indeed, the price per square meter of the references are:
- Reference 1: €9,286/m²
- Reference 2: €8,005/m²
- Reference 3: €7,563/m²
So here again the client’s expectation was way off. Fortunately this client didn’t have to bridge a large amount and didn’t get into trouble. But in his own calculation he really bit off more than he could chew. Once again the lesson: go to a professional, competent agent if you want to move — and let them make a well-substantiated estimate of your current home’s value before you start bidding on a new home.
Conclusion
And so they keep popping up: the Overconfident Bridge-Buyers. People who base their financial future on neighbour stories, gut feeling, and a bit of “it will probably be fine.” But a valuation is not a wishing-well — what you throw in doesn’t determine what you get out.
The lesson? Stop building castles in the air based on your home’s overvalue. First have your home professionally appraised before you bid hundreds of thousands on a new house as if you were playing a game of Monopoly. That prevents disappointments, collapsing financing, and awkward conversations with sellers.
The fewer Overconfident Bridge-Buyers I meet — the better for everyone — and especially for your own wallet.